Arthur Hayes is the former CEO of BitMEX. He believes that crypto markets are likely to peak around the middle March and will then crash. "severe" correction.
He begins his essay by discussing how the conditions of skiing in Japan have been compromised by a kind of bamboo called "sasa."
Hayes explains that heavy snowfall in Hokkaido meant resorts were able to open prematurely—and drawing parallels to crypto, he argues that a correction he predicted came earlier than expected, too.
Last month, the entrepreneur warned that painful sell-offs would happen when Donald Trump took office, with investors making the brutal realization that the president can't deliver all his pro-crypto promises.
Now he believes that this so-called "Trump dump" From the middle of December to the end of this year, the event has already occurred.
Hayes wrote in Substack that increasing the dollar’s liquidity during the first three-months of 2025 could help offset White House disappointment and create "positive momentum" For crypto.
"The sasa of a letdown by team Trump on his proposed pro-crypto and pro-business legislation can be covered by an extremely positive dollar liquidity environment, an increase of up to $612 billion in the first quarter," He adds.
Hayes believes that late March is the best time to take action as a cryptocurrency trader. "and chill on the beach."
Explaining his strategy as Maelstrom's chief investment officer, Hayes says he will now "encourage the risk-takers at the fund to turn the risk dial to DEGEN," Decentralized science and the ape "shitcoins."
Hayes went on to admit that his latest essay marks a U-turn on how Trump will affect the crypto markets—and while he says he may be a "shitty prognosticator of the future," At least, he’s absorbing new information and changing opinions before a chance is missed.
"Imagine you made a hole-in-one every time you hit a golf ball, sunk every three-point shot taken in basketball or off the break, and always pocketed every ball playing billiards. Life would be excruciatingly dull," He writes.
This isn't the first time that Hayes has confessed to having a low accuracy rate with his predictions (25% in 12 months, at one count.) In his view, the only thing that counts is bringing about a win. "hopefully a bit more success than failure."
Stacy Elliott is the editor.